The Runoffs
The 2016 election is over for the most part with Republican Donald Trump scoring a stunning victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College. It is reminiscent of the 2000 election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, where Bush eventually won with a U.S. Supreme Court decision. It will ignite, once again, the argument about popular vote versus the Electoral College.
But the election is not over in Louisiana.
There will be two runoff races on the ballot on Saturday, Dec. 10, and candidates will have to try and generate interest and get voters to the polls. The Louisiana U.S. Senate seat is still up for grabs, as is the Fourth Congressional District U.S. House seat. In both, it will be a Democrat versus a Republican scenario.
The Senate race, as most polls predicted, will feature Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell against Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy. Campbell bested fellow Democrat Caroline Fayard to make it into the runoff, while Kennedy came out on top among a field of at least four other viable Republicans.
The final tally was Kennedy 25 percent, Campbell 17 percent, Republican U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany 15 percent, Fayard 12 percent, Republican U.S. Rep. John Fleming 11 percent, and Republicans Rob Maness 5 percent and David Duke 3 percent.
It was an expensive race. The big losers were Boustany, who spent more than $5 million, and Fleming, who spent nearly $4 million, in a losing cause. Kennedy spent nearly $2 million to finish on top, while Campbell spent a little more than a million to earn the runoff spot. So the money-raising continues for Kennedy and Campbell as they head into the runoff.
What’s interesting here is that voters turned down two current members of Congress – Boustany and Fleming – who were seeking a promotion from the House to the Senate. They chose, instead, two longtime state politicians. Kennedy has been involved in state politics for 28 years, while Campbell has been on the political scene for 30 years. Both have tried to get to Congress before. Kennedy ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2004, losing to David Vitter, and in 2008, losing to Mary Landrieu. Campbell, on the other hand, has run unsuccessfully for the U.S. House in 1980, 1998 and 1990. He served in the state Senate from 1976 to 2002 and has been the Public Service Commissioner for District 5 since 1993. One of the two will make it to Washington this time.
Political gurus see a tough race for Campbell, given the fact that Trump carried Louisiana 58-38 percent. But keep in mind that Campbell, who is a tenacious campaigner, has the endorsement of Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards and that this is a new race, beginning at square one. Kennedy, of course, will try to tie himself to Trump and what is already a Republican-majority U.S. Senate. Just how much interest voters have in this election remains to be seen. Probably, not that much. So mobilizing turnout will be key for both candidates.
Also on the ballot will be the race for Fourth Congressional District U.S. House. Here, too, it’s a match up between a Republican, state Rep. Mike Johnson of Bossier, and a Democrat, Marshall Jones, a Shreveport attorney and businessman. Jones was the lone Democrat and finished with 27 percent. Johnson out-paced four other Republicans in the race and came in with 25 percent of the vote.
Jones spent nearly $300,000 in the primary, while Johnson spent nearly $450,000. The big spender was Republican former state Sen. Elbert Guillory at nearly $600,000 and received seven percent of the vote. Republicans Dr. Trey Baucum spent nearly $600,000 for 13 percent of the vote and Oliver Jenkins nearly $500,000 for 16 percent of the vote. These money figures go through Oct. 19 and are rounded off, so they could be higher when all is said and done.
While most political analysts favor Johnson, it must be pointed out that the Fourth District has changed demographically and is no longer a solid Republican stronghold. There are 482,853 registered voters in the district, which is comprised of all or part of 15 parishes. Of that total, 62 percent are white, 34 percent are black, and 4 percent are other races. By party affiliation, 44 percent are Democrats, 31 percent are Republicans, and 25 percent are No Party/Other Party.
Fifty percent of the district’s registered voters reside in Bossier and Caddo parishes, so that is likely where the battle will be waged. But not to be ignored are the 50 percent of the other registered voters who reside in the 13 other parishes in the district. Here, again, it will be the task of Jones and Johnson to get people to go to the polls and vote. And, here again, there won’t likely be much enthusiasm after such a long and contentious election season.
And finally, it is unknown how much national attention these two races will attract. Will each party try to pick up another seat by throwing money into the fray? Or will they just let the races play out. We’ll see. This is a Saturday election, so here’s hoping you will vote.
Lou Gehrig Burnett, an award-winning journalist, has been involved with politics for 44 years and was a congressional aide in Washington, D.C., for 27 years. He also served as executive assistant to former Shreveport Mayor “Bo” Williams. Burnett is the publisher of the weekly “FaxNet Update” and can be reached at 861-0552 or louburnett@comcast.net.
