Get ready for onslaught of political ads

Traditionally, after Labor Day is when political campaigns shift into high gear, and this election cycle will be no different. So you can get ready to be bombarded by political ads on your television and radio sets. Campaigns have become increasingly more expensive, and candidates are now willing to reach into their own pockets to bolster their campaign war chest.

We likely won’t see much in the way of presidential ads. Louisiana is not a key state in the total scheme of the national election with only eight electoral votes. The Bayou State has been painted red and firmly put into Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s column. Not much polling has been done in Louisiana on the race for president.

However, I have found two polling snapshots of voters in Louisiana. One was conducted by the Washington Post/Survey Monkey and the other one by Morning Consult, a media and technology company. These two polling operations are polling in every state in the country on a weekly basis, and the results have to be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to downright accuracy. But they do give us some idea of whom the voters of the state are supporting.

Both polls indicate that Trump has a big lead in Louisiana at this point in the race. The Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll revealed that 49 percent of respondents favored Trump, 33 percent chose Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, nine percent went for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had three percent. Morning Consult found similar results. Its numbers revealed that 43.4 percent support Trump, 29.6 percent support Clinton, 9.7 percent chose Johnson, and 3.4 percent went for Stein.

One thing is important to remember, however: These polls supposedly reflect the national vote. But the presidency is decided by electoral votes, not popular vote. Just ask Democrat Al Gore about that. In 2000, he won the popular vote in a contested election where the United States Supreme Court ultimately elected the president. In other words, five members of the court elected the president by choosing Republican George W. Bush.

So, how do things look nationally?

Washington Post/Survey Monkey has Clinton with 244 solid or leaning electoral votes. To win, 270 are needed. Trump has 126 solid or leaning with the remaining 168 considered toss-ups. Morning Consult predicts Clinton will win the presidency with 332 electoral votes to Trump’s 206. The election is Tuesday, Nov. 8.

You will probably see a lot of ads for the U.S. Senate race, where 24 candidates qualified to replace Republican Sen. David Vitter, who is not seeking reelection to a third six-year term. Of those 24 candidates, it is likely that only six or seven will be able to raise enough money to run television and radio ads. 

Considered the most viable candidates are five Republicans and two Democrats. The latest poll on the race shows Republican John Kennedy with 27 percent, Democrat Foster Campbell with 16 percent, Republican Charles Boustany with 12 percent, Democrat Caroline Fayard with 12 percent, Republican David Duke with six percent, Republican John Fleming with six percent, and Republican Rob Maness with four percent.

Most political analysts are predicting a runoff between Kennedy and Campbell, but, as we know, this race has a way to go yet. There will ads galore as well as televised debates. And Duke is kind of the wild card who is tying himself to the coattails of Trump through statewide robo calls. Duke is known to fly under the political radar, so the other candidates are keeping a close eye on him.

The race for the 4th District Congressional seat is shaping up as an interesting one. Republican U.S. Rep. John Fleming, who currently occupies the seat, is running for the U.S. Senate, making the district a rare open seat. Eight candidates quailed – five Republicans, one Democrat, and two No Party candidates. The Republicans are Dr. Trey Baucum of Shreveport, former state Sen. Elbert Guillory of Opelousas, Shreveport City Councilman Oliver Jenkins, Shreveport attorney Rick John, and state Rep. Mike Johnson of Bossier City. The lone Democrat is Shreveport attorney Marshall Jones. The two No Party candidates are retired state employee Kenneth Krefft of Shreveport and Mark David Halverson of Shreveport.

The 4th District is comprised of part or all of 15 parishes in Northwest Louisiana going all the way south along the western border of the state. About 55 percent of the registered voters reside in Bossier and Caddo parishes, so we can expect to see a lot of ads on Shreveport television and radio stations.

There are 472,133 registered voters in the 4th District. Of that total, 62 percent are white, 34 percent black, and 4 percent other races. By party affiliation, 45 percent are Democrats, 31 percent are Republicans, and 24 percent of Other/No Party.

So as you can see, there is a lot to think about before election day arrives Just remember, you can’t always believe everything you see and hear in political ads, especially when they are negative. For the 4th District race, there have been and will be many forums where you can get up close and personal with the candidates. Some of these elections could be very close where every vote will count. Make sure your vote is among them.

Lou Gehrig Burnett, an award-winning journalist, has been involved with politics for 44 years and was a congressional aide in Washington, D.C., for 27 years. He also served as executive assistant to former Shreveport Mayor “Bo” Williams. Burnett is the publisher of the weekly “FaxNet Update” and can be reached at 861-0552 or louburnett@comcast.net.